Invest-and-Forget Strategy for Retail Investors: Fred Thiel’s Recommendation
In an interview with FOX Business on January 2, Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, a leading Bitcoin mining firm, recommended that retail investors adopt an invest-and-forget strategy when it comes to investing in Bitcoin. According to Thiel, this approach is based on the strong price performance of Bitcoin over the long term.
Bitcoin’s Price Performance: A Long-Term Perspective
Thiel noted that Bitcoin’s price has only fallen three times over the last 14 calendar years. This indicates a remarkable level of stability and resilience in the cryptocurrency market. In contrast, many traditional financial assets are subject to significant volatility and fluctuations in value.
"My recommendation, to my kids, for example, is they put just a little bit away every month in Bitcoin and forget about it," Thiel said during the interview. "Over two, three, four years, it grows, and that’s what people do."
Rise of Bitcoin: Average Annual Growth
Thiel emphasized that Bitcoin has consistently delivered strong returns over the long term, with an average annual growth rate between 29% and 50%. This makes it an attractive investment option for those looking to diversify their portfolios and capitalize on the potential of cryptocurrency.
However, it’s essential to note that investing in Bitcoin comes with its own set of risks and challenges. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and prices can fluctuate rapidly. As such, Thiel’s invest-and-forget strategy may not be suitable for all investors, particularly those who are risk-averse or lack experience in the cryptocurrency space.
Catalysts that Could Push Bitcoin’s Price Higher
Thiel identified several factors that could contribute to a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price in 2025. These include:
- United States Bitcoin Reserve: The establishment of a US Bitcoin reserve could have a profound impact on the market, providing a new level of legitimacy and stability for the cryptocurrency.
- Institutional Adoption through Spot ETFs: The launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could facilitate greater institutional adoption of Bitcoin, driving up demand and prices.
- Friendlier Regulatory Environment: A shift in regulatory policies under the incoming Trump Administration could create a more favorable environment for cryptocurrency investment.
Growing Support for Bitcoin: X Poll Results
Thiel’s comments on the potential for increased support for Bitcoin were echoed by Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, who conducted an X poll among his followers. The results showed that 77.7% of participants (65,164) plan to increase their Bitcoin holdings in 2025.
This level of enthusiasm is not surprising, given the strong following and advocacy for Bitcoin among Saylor’s 3.9 million X followers.
MARA Holdings’ Commitment to Holding Bitcoin
MARA Holdings, under Thiel’s leadership, has committed to holding its Bitcoin reserves for the long term. In July, the company announced a new treasury policy aimed at retaining all mined Bitcoin and adopting various capital market instruments to bolster its reserves.
This strategy is similar to that employed by MicroStrategy, which has become one of the largest holders of Bitcoin among publicly listed companies. MARA currently holds 44,394 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $4.3 billion at current prices, making it the second-largest holder in this category, trailing only MicroStrategy’s massive 446,400 Bitcoin stack.
Conclusion
Fred Thiel’s recommendation to adopt an invest-and-forget strategy for retail investors is based on the strong price performance of Bitcoin over the long term. While investing in cryptocurrency comes with its own set of risks and challenges, Thiel’s comments highlight the potential for significant growth and returns.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve and mature, it will be interesting to see how these predictions play out and what impact they have on the prices of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
